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Here We Go Again: How to Read Those HELP Numbers
...After all, you're interested in the HELP bill because it's a vehicle to enact health care reform. But health care reform necessarily involves a few more pieces--pieces outside of HELP's jurisdiction.

In particular, there's going to be a substantial expansion of Medicaid, which will cost money. There will also be reforms to Medicare and Medicaid that save money. And that's in addition to whatever new revenue reform claims, whether in the form of cap on the employer tax exclusion, President Obama's proposal for itemized deductions, or some other resources.

Since we have a pretty good idea of the size of the Medicaid expansion, we can estimate its impact very roughly. It should reach somewhere in the neighbrohood of another 20 million people. ...

...But that's wrong, too. If you want to factor in the coverage effects of the Medicaid expansion--which, again, is being done by another committee--then you need to factor in the cost effects too. That will probably inflate the program's total outlays to somewhere between $1 and $1.3 trillion--which, by the way, is more or less what experts have been saying all along....