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The 'Christian Barometer' and the Middle East
...No matter how one approaches the issue, assessing movement toward reform in the Middle East by considering just free elections, market reforms, or even the adoption of constitutions and bills of rights does not provide a full picture. After all, these steps amount mostly to political and legal arrangements – and could be swiftly reversed by a new government.

So here is my idea: Why don't we measure progress toward freedom in the Middle East focusing on the status of an integral element of the region's political and social-demographic environment – its large Christian minorities? ...

...Most of these people are highly educated and multilingual, and have studied and worked in Europe and North America – where they also have a large diaspora. The Christians of the Middle East also tend to be more secular and liberal than the surrounding Muslim majority.

To put it differently, common sense – backed by statistical and anecdotal evidence – provides you with this surprising but dependable rule of thumb.

As the Middle East becomes more free and prosperous, linked to the West and hospitable to minorities and women, the higher the probability that the Christians will continue to live in and even return from abroad to countries like Lebanon, Egypt, or Syria.

And vice versa, if the Christians sense that things are getting worse, that the Arab countries they live in are losing their commitment to political, economic, and religious freedom, they would tend to emigrate from the Middle East. ...

...True enough, Saddam Hussein tried to suppress the religious identity of the Christians as part of the effort to create a secular Iraqi identity.

But now, in the aftermath of the American invasion, the Christians sense the rise of radical Islamic tendencies in both the ruling Shi'ite majority and the Sunni minority.

So the Christians in Iraq are trying to leave the country – as opposed to taking part in building a new liberal democracy. Joining them in emigrating from the Middle East are the Christians in the Holy Land. Many Western-educated Palestinian Christian professionals had actually returned to the West Bank during the Oslo peace process.

But after the start of the Second Intifada, and with signs that Islamic radicals are strengthening their power, they are moving back to North and South America, Europe, and Australia.

Even in Lebanon, which was established by the French to provide autonomy to the Maronites, the number of Christians has been dwindling. ...

...So pay attention to the "Christian barometer." Only if and when the Christians in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and elsewhere become more bullish can we be confident that the region is becoming more open, free, pluralistic, and prosperous.