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Roughest Region

...We're here forever. The simple fact about the New Iraq is that never in our lifetimes will it be able to defend itself from its neighbors. It will always be dependent on the United States to do that job. And because it floats on oil, and because all its neighbors - and all of us - have a vital stake in its future, it's going to take a lot of defending.

Just look around. In that handy guide to global armies "The Military Balance," compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, you'll find that of the six countries bordering Iraq, only Kuwait will have an army smaller than the one planned for Baghdad (15,400). On the other hand, Iran has some 520,000 people under arms (and may soon have nukes); Turkey has 515,000 (and a full-blown NATO arsenal); Syria has 319,000 (and chemical and biological weapons); Saudi Arabia has 200,000 (including its National Guard), and even little Jordan has 100,000. Not to mention nearby Israel, which has 161,000 soldiers on active duty, an enormous technological edge and, oh, yes, absolutely does have nuclear weapons.

Saddam used his 400,000-man military recklessly and fecklessly for more than 20 years, but that doesn't mean his country can by defended with only 10 per cent of that force. And the folks at the Pentagon, of all people, know that. No treaty is good enough for them when it comes to America's own defense needs. They don't trust anybody, not even their old partners in NATO. Do they really believe that the Middle East will see such peace and harmony that Iraq can survive on its own as a fully sovereign and independent state with such a puny fighting force? Of course not....