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Coming Next: A War for Talent
After the jobless phase of the recovery ends, companies will have to hustle to keep their most valuable workers from jumping ship

For two years, economists have looked at new unemployment applications with increasing alarm. But for managers on the corporate front lines, the real cause for concern in coming months could be a different population of job-seekers: the gainfully employed. With unemployment at its highest point in nearly a decade, workers lucky enough to avoid layoffs have had little opportunity to jump ship.

That will change as the economy picks up. Companies will have to begin hiring if growing demand overwhelms the productivity gains that have allowed them to churn out more goods with fewer workers.

Experts predict that annual voluntary turnover could rise to 20% or more for white-collar workers, as companies bid for top talent and star employees start heading for the exits. For employers, "it's going to be quite traumatic," says Ed Jensen, a partner in the human performance practice at Accenture Ltd.

READY TO BOLT. It has been three long years of doubled-up workloads, minuscule raises, and ungrateful bosses -- and American workers are fed up. In the late 1990s, when even modest performers could drum up multiple job offers, such treatment would have led to a mass exodus. Today, it has many workers quietly updating their résumés and biding their time. ...