---

The party's over for CEO's; skilled-worker crisis has commenced

Workplace futurist Roger Herman says it's official: The U.S. skilled-worker crisis has begun. By the end of next year, he warns, employers will be scrambling for talent.

"The party's over," says the iconoclastic chief executive of Herman Group, based in Greensboro, N.C. "We're now entering a repeat crisis of the late 1990s. We expect to be totally back into the warm-body syndrome" – where hiring anybody with a pulse will do – "by the latter part of 2004."

But didn't consumer confidence take an unexpected dip this week due to continued jobless angst?

Perception hasn't caught up with the new reality yet, says Mr. Herman. But it's going to hit home soon, and health care, retailing, construction, finance and biotechnology are likely to be the first industries to see the headlights.

He was making a speech recently and asked representatives of 150 companies in a wide range of industries how many had more than one critical position going unfilled for lack of talent.

"Almost every hand in the room went up," says Mr. Herman. ...