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When the Americans leave
Martin van Creveld

JERUSALEM As some people predicted even before it all started, America's war against Iraq proved so easy as to make one wonder why it had to be fought at all.

As other people also predicted before it all started, the really hard part got under way only after President George W. Bush declared "major combat operations" at an end. More American soldiers have died trying to safeguard the "victory" than were killed in achieving it in the first place; nor does it look as if there is anything the United States can do to change the trend.

As the promise to advance the Iraqi elections to mid-2004 shows, the United States will lose - in fact already has lost - the war. The Americans will leave the country in the same way as the Soviets left Afghanistan: with the Iraqi guerrillas jeering at them. The only question is how long it will take and how much prestige can still be saved from the ruins. That, and that alone, is the issue that still faces Bush, who is up for re-election and must somehow put this issue behind him before Americans go to the polls....